Following up on posts about diminishing road-race numbers

While much of the decline is surely "covid-related," hesitancy about breathing toxic air probably isn't the main factor, Boulder's preponderance of masks notwithstanding

Last month, I wrote about the return of the Bolder Boulder 10K this year after a two-year absence. In addition to noting that the microscopic professional race has fallen into disrepair, I pointed out that the overall number of finishers was over one-third smaller than it had been in the event’s last running in 2019 (28.1K vs. 42.6K). With other large U.S. races such as the Broad Street Run and the Peachtree 10K suffering even greater percentile decreases in 2022, it was obvious that the loosening or elimination of most coronavirus-related restrictions hadn’t been enough on its own to cajole runners back to racing, or at least to mega-events.

I revisited this theme two weeks ago, when I wrote about the CIGNA 5K, held a short drive from my hometown in New Hampshire and for decades the state’s largest annual road race. With the number of finishers of the 2022 CIGNA race having been cut almost in half from its 2019 total (2,287 vs. 4,276), I hammered away anew at the gong of “everyone’s afraid” without considering other factors that may have changed the scene. Some of these are organic and have been accelerated by the sociological weirdness of the “pandemic,” while at least one of them is obvious and (hopefully) situational: Inflation, which I at least mentioned in passing in my post about the Bolder Boulder.

I might attribute my declining to engage these theories in my CIGNA 5K post to being distracted by how well my nephew ran there. But that would be sleazy, since Substacker-in-waiting Scott Douglas had already offered a clue or six in a comment to my Bolder Boulder post:

Re: race numbers being down: I think the pandemic's effect is more from people getting out of the habit than continuing concern about large gatherings. (The coffee shops and brew pubs of Boulder are likely thriving.) Note that big marathons and even half marathons are close to pre-pandemic numbers. Putting those larger races' infrastructure over a shorter race makes the latter more of a hassle than they're usually worth. A lot more people may have finally realized that spending a lot of money and a good part of a weekend day or holiday just isn't worth it for a 10K or 10-miler.

Related, it could be that the sort of runners who used to be attracted by the "I did it" bragging rights from these events realized during the pandemic they can use their watch to do their own thing, post about it on social, and get the same "attaboy/girl" reactions. The onus is on running events to justify the time and money necessary to participate in them.

I also got an e-mail after the CIGNA post that contained the following wisdom:

Hi Kevin

I don’t think it’s fear any longer. I think we lost a generation of athletes/participants who simply quit the sport in the pandemic. And the newcomers are training/exercising but still not racing.

We mostly organize long distance bike races (and 2 marathons so far). My estimate is that globally about 2/3 of races are gone, most for good.

The funny thing about the decline in numbers being driven by what amounts to a loss of interest is that I have agitated multiple times on this blog for people to not attend huge, poorly organized moneymaker-first events—the Rock ‘n’ Roll series naturally to mind, but that roving eyesore has spawned a number of equally feeble imitators, such as the Hot Chocolate series—and instead either relegate themselves to time trials, support smaller local events, or create a hybrid of the two by competing in semi-organized races with and against the same people they would see if everyone only had a land telephone line, a local job, and no Internet. Just plan a weekly or monthly time, and all the regular partners you accumulated during the sociological upheaval of the “pandemic” with show up and invite appropriate others. (Actually, I didn’t explore many if any of those details at all, but it looks better if I establish having built a foundation for them, honestly or otherwise.)

I do feel at least momentary conflict at the idea of generally positive outcomes that entail significant individual losses, like races that provide bad service going out of business so that others can thrive. If fewer people are doing big races, fewer people are doing smaller ones, too; even if the financial-survival models of these choice events are different, some road-race directors with great records and intentions are going to go under. (Obviously, this happens from time to time as it is.)

This seems an extension of my vaguely bleeding-heart attitude toward useless agencies like the Transportation Safety Authority. As much as I and millions of others would love to see the TSA dissolved, this would leave 60,000 people without a job. What exactly would those people do? (There probably aren’t 60,000 full-time employees in whatever the running industry includes, but still.)

In any case—which is a lazy clause for opening the last paragraph of a piece of writing, but sure as shit beats “anyway” or “to sum up”—I felt like being prodded twice about the same narrowness of insight had left a gap in this otherwise seamless presentation, and now it’s been filled.

Anyway, keep yelling about running, and at times I’ll have no choice but to respond in kind.