Following up on posts about diminishing road-race numbers
While much of the decline is surely "covid-related," hesitancy about breathing toxic air probably isn't the main factor, Boulder's preponderance of masks notwithstanding
Last month, I wrote about the return of the Bolder Boulder 10K this year after a two-year absence. In addition to noting that the microscopic professional race has fallen into disrepair, I pointed out that the overall number of finishers was over one-third smaller than it had been in the event’s last running in 2019 (28.1K vs. 42.6K). With other large U.S. races such as the Broad Street Run and the Peachtree 10K suffering even greater percentile decreases in 2022, it was obvious that the loosening or elimination of most coronavirus-related restrictions hadn’t been enough on its own to cajole runners back to racing, or at least to mega-events.
I revisited this theme two weeks ago, when I wrote about the CIGNA 5K, held a short drive from my hometown in New Hampshire and for decades the state’s largest annual road race. With the number of finishers of the 2022 CIGNA race having been cut almost in half from its 2019 total (2,287 vs. 4,276), I hammered away anew at the gong of “everyone’s afraid” without considering other factors that may have changed the scene. Some of these are organic and have been accelerated by the sociological weirdness of the “pandemic,” while at least one of them is obvious and (hopefully) situational: Inflation, which I at least mentioned in passing in my post about the Bolder Boulder.
I might attribute my declining to engage these theories in my CIGNA 5K post to being distracted by how well my nephew ran there. But that would be sleazy, since Substacker-in-waiting Scott Douglas had already offered a clue or six in a comment to my Bolder Boulder post:
Re: race numbers being down: I think the pandemic's effect is more from people getting out of the habit than continuing concern about large gatherings. (The coffee shops and brew pubs of Boulder are likely thriving.) Note that big marathons and even half marathons are close to pre-pandemic numbers. Putting those larger races' infrastructure over a shorter race makes the latter more of a hassle than they're usually worth. A lot more people may have finally realized that spending a lot of money and a good part of a weekend day or holiday just isn't worth it for a 10K or 10-miler.
Related, it could be that the sort of runners who used to be attracted by the "I did it" bragging rights from these events realized during the pandemic they can use their watch to do their own thing, post about it on social, and get the same "attaboy/girl" reactions. The onus is on running events to justify the time and money necessary to participate in them.
I also got an e-mail after the CIGNA post that contained the following wisdom:
Hi Kevin
I don’t think it’s fear any longer. I think we lost a generation of athletes/participants who simply quit the sport in the pandemic. And the newcomers are training/exercising but still not racing.
We mostly organize long distance bike races (and 2 marathons so far). My estimate is that globally about 2/3 of races are gone, most for good.
The funny thing about the decline in numbers being driven by what amounts to a loss of interest is that I have agitated multiple times on this blog for people to not attend huge, poorly organized moneymaker-first events—the Rock ‘n’ Roll series naturally to mind, but that roving eyesore has spawned a number of equally feeble imitators, such as the Hot Chocolate series—and instead either relegate themselves to time trials, support smaller local events, or create a hybrid of the two by competing in semi-organized races with and against the same people they would see if everyone only had a land telephone line, a local job, and no Internet. Just plan a weekly or monthly time, and all the regular partners you accumulated during the sociological upheaval of the “pandemic” with show up and invite appropriate others. (Actually, I didn’t explore many if any of those details at all, but it looks better if I establish having built a foundation for them, honestly or otherwise.)
I do feel at least momentary conflict at the idea of generally positive outcomes that entail significant individual losses, like races that provide bad service going out of business so that others can thrive. If fewer people are doing big races, fewer people are doing smaller ones, too; even if the financial-survival models of these choice events are different, some road-race directors with great records and intentions are going to go under. (Obviously, this happens from time to time as it is.)
This seems an extension of my vaguely bleeding-heart attitude toward useless agencies like the Transportation Safety Authority. As much as I and millions of others would love to see the TSA dissolved, this would leave 60,000 people without a job. What exactly would those people do? (There probably aren’t 60,000 full-time employees in whatever the running industry includes, but still.)
In any case—which is a lazy clause for opening the last paragraph of a piece of writing, but sure as shit beats “anyway” or “to sum up”—I felt like being prodded twice about the same narrowness of insight had left a gap in this otherwise seamless presentation, and now it’s been filled.
Anyway, keep yelling about running, and at times I’ll have no choice but to respond in kind.
In the last half of the '70s, it seemed the 10k distance was hugely popular. Some rural race in Western PA would usher in 500 bodies and it was common to see the winner in 30 flat. One year my time near 36 would garner about 86th overall.
Push forward to being 43 and running the same 36 for first overall at another local 10k with 120 folks and running 37 at 51 and getting 2nd overall. Obviously nothing changed much for me. Still going through the motions. What happened to "the field." Where are the Ham and Eggers? Back in the day one kid ran 33:30 and was 14 years old. Many of us saw these results happen back then. I partly think because we basically worked out all day playing, doing chores, gym class, sports practice, and then goofing off until dark with neighbor kids. I remember my Mom telling me that my brother and I were going through almost a box of cereal a day and 5 gallons of milk a week. How true I do not know.
I have noticed a fair few races going under locally. There has also been a lot of consolidation. In the greater Seattle area, two groups - Orca Running and the Snohomish Running Company - have snapped up a whole bunch of what used to be independent races. They are both very well organized and execute races that go off on time and have well-marked courses, chip-timed, semi-accurately measured. On the flip side, they are very focused on the "swag" and pricey and monopolies are always dangerous. Their races are well-attended and I think they are putting some of the smaller independent races out of business. It's a lot more efficient to do 12 races a year than just one.
Also, as has been widely reported, Seattle has a major cop shortage. This has made running races within city limits much more difficult. I don't know of any races longer than 5K run on city streets since Covid. (The Seattle marathon was run mostly on the I90 interstate HOV lane and on multiuse trails I think, though I didn't run it, so I'm not 100% sure.) Several races were canceled, moved or shortened. For example, the Hot Chocolate 15K was canceled and only the 5K was run. I am not involved in race organization, but my sense is that it's extremely difficult to get the police support necessary to close roads in Seattle proper. I don't know how big of an issue this is around the country, but I think it's a big factor here.
I have been frustrated by a number of races being canceled or moved, first due to Covid and now due to who-knows-what, maybe the cop shortage. I think a bunch of people probably got tired of shelling out money for a race only to have it turn "virtual!" and not get an option of a refund and have their training go to race. Orca / SRC have "no refund for any reason" policies on all their races.
Personally I can't run fast without head to head competition, the more the better. I like to race. So I'm still participating.