I don't think men's and women's performances are easily/directly comparable in every way. The most elite women are further ahead of the rest of women than the most elite men are ahead of the rest of men. Kipyegon is literally 5 seconds faster than any other woman has ever run in the mile..imagine if a man just popped off and ran 3:38. We won't see it.
Another example of this: the women's marathon record is 31:17 10k pace. Only 30 women bested that for a 10k this year. The men's marathon world record is 28:44 pace. 400 men bested that this year. As absolutely insane as Kiptum's performance was, Assefa's is far more of an outlier compared to her elite peers.
There could be many reasons for this, androgenic doping being one of them as you say. Or perhaps certain female individuals are just exceptionally lucky to have something physiologically exceptional about them, (hormone levels, red blood cell counts, heart/lung sizes, and build) that are more similar to the average man's than the average elite woman's. Some would argue that the sport on the women's side just hasn't fully developed yet. No matter the reason, there are a very elite few women who are just FAR ahead.
Ironically, because of this, a woman like Molly Seidel has a chance to medal even though she runs 10 minutes slower than the World record. From that 2:11, things drop off rather quickly and drastically. Meanwhile a 2:10 man has absolutely zero chance of medaling, because the DEPTH ahead of him is too great.
From this piece and what I see elsewhere I take it that the US Trials Marathon will not be a Gold Medal race, or whatever it was called, like it was last time?
"I often wonder why the performance gap between men and women starts at around 10 percent at the very top, slides to around 11 or 12 percent at the general world-class level, and stands at around 15 to 16 percent at the NCAA and high-school level."
I think a huge factor, for the marathon at any rate, is that elite women schedule their childbearing around racing. Some of them forego having children until they're old or don't have them at all or adopt. Others simply schedule them carefully around the Olympics. On the other hand, amateur women tend to have children during their prime childbearing years. I hear a lot of bellyaching from men about Boston qualifying, for example, but I think most men fail to appreciate how much having even two children, never mind three, between 25 and 35, disrupts marathon training and racing cycles. This is especially true if you optimize when you have those kids around things other than your running goals, as most non-elite women do. Many women will also experience miscarriages which are also significantly disruptive to training cycles. My most severe running injury took me out after I tried to return to training too quickly after a miscarriage. The whole thing - pregnancy + miscarriage + resultant injury took me out for the better part of a year, and I didn't even have a kid at the end of it!
But yes, I'm very curious what's going to happen with the Olympic Trials marathon. Seems a bit crazy to hold it with so few qualifiers.
I don't think men's and women's performances are easily/directly comparable in every way. The most elite women are further ahead of the rest of women than the most elite men are ahead of the rest of men. Kipyegon is literally 5 seconds faster than any other woman has ever run in the mile..imagine if a man just popped off and ran 3:38. We won't see it.
Another example of this: the women's marathon record is 31:17 10k pace. Only 30 women bested that for a 10k this year. The men's marathon world record is 28:44 pace. 400 men bested that this year. As absolutely insane as Kiptum's performance was, Assefa's is far more of an outlier compared to her elite peers.
There could be many reasons for this, androgenic doping being one of them as you say. Or perhaps certain female individuals are just exceptionally lucky to have something physiologically exceptional about them, (hormone levels, red blood cell counts, heart/lung sizes, and build) that are more similar to the average man's than the average elite woman's. Some would argue that the sport on the women's side just hasn't fully developed yet. No matter the reason, there are a very elite few women who are just FAR ahead.
Ironically, because of this, a woman like Molly Seidel has a chance to medal even though she runs 10 minutes slower than the World record. From that 2:11, things drop off rather quickly and drastically. Meanwhile a 2:10 man has absolutely zero chance of medaling, because the DEPTH ahead of him is too great.
From this piece and what I see elsewhere I take it that the US Trials Marathon will not be a Gold Medal race, or whatever it was called, like it was last time?
"I often wonder why the performance gap between men and women starts at around 10 percent at the very top, slides to around 11 or 12 percent at the general world-class level, and stands at around 15 to 16 percent at the NCAA and high-school level."
I think a huge factor, for the marathon at any rate, is that elite women schedule their childbearing around racing. Some of them forego having children until they're old or don't have them at all or adopt. Others simply schedule them carefully around the Olympics. On the other hand, amateur women tend to have children during their prime childbearing years. I hear a lot of bellyaching from men about Boston qualifying, for example, but I think most men fail to appreciate how much having even two children, never mind three, between 25 and 35, disrupts marathon training and racing cycles. This is especially true if you optimize when you have those kids around things other than your running goals, as most non-elite women do. Many women will also experience miscarriages which are also significantly disruptive to training cycles. My most severe running injury took me out after I tried to return to training too quickly after a miscarriage. The whole thing - pregnancy + miscarriage + resultant injury took me out for the better part of a year, and I didn't even have a kid at the end of it!
But yes, I'm very curious what's going to happen with the Olympic Trials marathon. Seems a bit crazy to hold it with so few qualifiers.