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Jan 11Liked by Kevin Beck

There's no question it's been warmer here in coastal Massachusetts recently than was normal. We had our first real snowatorm on Sunday. On Tuesday night there was another big storm but it was rain, lots of it, and the temperaure hit fifty or so. Except for plowed banks the snow is gone, something I can live with very happily, but this is all pretty new .

But why? I don't have the science background to evaluate anyone's explanation but I'm pretty good at analyzing rhetoric and I have read in more than one place that Mars and Titan are also significantly warmer now than they were in the mid 70s. It's kind of a reach to blame that on SUVs and farting catttle and it's also hard not to think that it can only be the sun that's warming those places and that it's also hard not to think that it would be hard for the sun to make Mars warmer than it was but not bother with doing the same thing here. I've never seen anyone who's on the "We're All Going to Fry" bandwagon mention these phenomena but Soon has done it and, uh, not a moment too soon as far as I'm concerned. (Couldn't resist.)

Freeman Dyson was always one of my intellectual heroes and he thought there was a lot more information required before anyone could make real predicitions about long term climate futures and their causes. He never denied that the worst case scenarios we were given could possibly happen but he thought the data were inadequate so far but he didn't seem to think those worst case scenearios were really likely.

This infuriated the We'll Fry folks and one of their legitimate criticisms of Dyson was that he was not a climate scientist and had no training in the subject. But to me, that made Dyson's position more credible. He'd managed to become one of the world's most respected physicists, eventually landing Einstein's old job at the Institute for Advanced Studies while having "only" a master's degree. His job was essentially to look at situations that interested him and see what he made of them. I've come to think that careerism is often a curse in the academic world but Dyson, not being a climatologist, had no career in the field to advance or protect. And how can we not give credence to a guy whose wife was once of the best age group woman marathoners in the world?

As you've noted here several times at least indirectly, climate science and COVID are two very visible and public disciplines. For that reason there are grants to be received and careers to be advanced but only for those whose public ideas conform to the majority opinions. Mark Twain once said something like when you find your thinlig conforming to the common belief it's time to re-evaluate your thinking.

On what you probably hope by now is a final note, neither COVID nor the climate crisis will ever be resolved or will ever go away. Institutions have formed around them and once that happens with almost any phenomenon the problem will never be resolved because the institutions that have formed need those problems to persist in oreder to perpetuate the existence of those institutions and the primary function of all institutions, as anyone who took an Introduction to Sociology class learned, is self perpetuation.

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