What's the proper response when someone breaks a national record set by a currently suspended athlete?
Such events always require counter-logical reasoning to reach emotionally satisfying conclusions
Alicia Monson ran 14:19.45 for 5,000 meters in London yesterday to break Shelby Houlihan’s American record by over four seconds. Houlihan ran 14:23.92 on July 10, 2020, about five months before submitting the urine sample that led to a four-year suspension, the penalty Houlihan received for testing positive for metabolites of the steroid nandrolone.
Regarding Houlihan, either a given person believes she was “dirty”—that is, that the nandrolone metabolites got into her system because Houlihan was cheating on purpose—or that person don't doesn’t. I think most of the sport’s well-known pundits believe Houlihan is simply a classic doper whether they admit it or not, while the ones who don't are lost causes unprepared for adult-level discussions anyway.
So let's say someone is in the (presumed) majority and believes the 14:23.92 was a Houlihandrolone special. Chronic side note: I wonder how many people who accept that Houlihan used nandrolone on purpose believe that this is the only banned aid she was using. I have never heard of an athlete stopping at one PED once the cheating floodgates have been formally thrown open, and the reason should be clear.
Moreover, I wonder how many of those same people—the ones who think Houlihan’s 14:23.92 is tainted—presume Monson's 14:19.45 to be clean? Among those who do, what is the argument? That she hasn't tested positive and that it's unfair to even be suspicious of someone until he or she is suspended and suspunished?
An alternative conceit is that a clean Monson has the talent to outrun a known doper—one who was great from high school (4:43 mile) on. Maybe Monson is just substantially better as a distance runner.
It could in fact be the case that Monson is more talented. Examining her progression is one way to address this question, albeit a limited one.
Monson ran all four years of high school, and, according to her Milesplit profile, as a senior in 2016 ran a 4:55 1,600 meters to go with a 10:28 two-mile (equivalent to 10:25 for 3,200 meters).
She did not redshirt her freshman year at Wisconsin. She ran 16:15 for 5,000 meters indoors and 16:04 outdoors. As a collegian, the 5,000 meters was her primary focus.
In her sophomore year (2018), she ran 15:47 indoors and 15:38 outdoors.
In her junior year (2019), she ran 15:31 indoors and 16:09 outdoors (she raced sparingly in the spring).
In her senior year (2020)m she ran 16:04 indoors in a pandemically incomplete campaign, while the entire outdoor season was nixed by external covidian overregulation. With her collegiate eligibility exhausted, she joined the On Athletics Club and moved to Boulder, Colorado. She 15:14.71 in August in Los Angeles, then made her 10,000-meter debut in December with a 31:10.84.In 2021, her first year as a pro, she didn’t race indoors, but ran 14:42.56 outdoors in September. She didn’t race over 10,000 meters.
In 2022, she ran 14:31.11 and 30:51.09.
In 2023 so far, she has run 14:19.45 and 30:03.82 (an American record by over nine seconds).
Where does it end? We* won’t know until her performances show some hint of leveling off. Here is her progression in the 5,000 meters, represented by her best time in every calendar year shown.
This woman isn't just a little faster than everyone except Shelbo and Karissa Schweizer at 5,000 meters, she's far faster. Here’s the current all-time U.S. list:
Also, as much as the “superspikes” that reached the professional scene in 2019 are playing a role in the rewriting of this and related lists, Monson turned 25 in May. Shannon Rowbury was 31 (nearly 32) when she ran 14:38.92. Molly Huddle was a month shy of 30 when she ran 14:42.64.
Josette Andrews is “only” 27, but she's a supershoes-era chick too and 14:43 isn't as striking now as it was when Rowbury and Huddle were in their primes. Shalane Flanagan was 27, closing in on 28, when she popped her 14:44.80. Concerning Elly Henes, see my comments about Andrews.
Not only is Monson amazingly fast, she ascended to where she is a more quickly than is typical. Schweizer ran her 14:26.34 at 24, but anyone who doesn't have questions about her is a damn fool.
It's interesting how many people in the generally aware pundit-class think OAC head coach Dathan Ritzenhein is doing this "the right way" and using only the "gray area" methods he picked up from Alberto Salazar while completely shunning anything else he picked up along the way. He seems to have earned a reputation as a whistleblower of sorts in the Nike Oregon Project mess that I'm not quite sure he earned, but his likability steers people in that direction, and everyone wants an excuse to push the specter of doping into the corner anyway.